Staying abreast of the interest rate forecast in South Africa is something most investors are eager to do. With inflation gradually rising, economists and analysts are divided on what the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) plan will be. This blog post provides a deep dive into predictions and market trends and offers an interest rate forecast for South Africa in November 2025, informed by top analysts’ predictions.
South Africa’s current economic landscape
We are steadily approaching the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 20 November 2025, where the interest rate change or hold will be decided. This blog post shares our forecast for the South African interest rate. At the moment, the repo rate is 7.00% and the prime lending rate is 10.50%. This is a result of three cuts in 2025 (namely in January, May, and July). These interest rate cuts aimed to stimulate economic activity.
With South African inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, and the SARB having announced its long-term goal of bringing inflation nearer to 3%, analysts predict that further interest rate cuts are unlikely this year. The central bank’s decision to shift its inflation target from the midpoint of 4.5% to the lower end at 3% signals a stricter stance on price stability. This move could delay the next interest rate cut.
Analyst predictions are divided as we approach the next SARB meeting
Local experts’ opinions indicate a clear divide on the South African interest rate forecast.
FNB and Nedbank’s predictions
According to FNB’s Senior Economist, Koketso Mano, “the inflation rate for September was in line with their expectation as well as that of the market. Considering this latest print, we see headline inflation lifting to 0.3% on a monthly basis to 3.8% in October. However, headline inflation should remain below 4% over the next year bar any negative shocks.” (Source)
Busisiwe Nkonki and Johannes (Matimba) Khosa, economists at the Nedbank Group, say their South African interest rate forecast is affected by inflation increasing. They anticipate inflation trending gradually higher to around 4% by the end of 2025, driven by base effects and elevated meat prices. They suggest that these conditions don’t yet justify progressive interest rate easing. (Source)
ABSA’s predictions
ABSA has not specified an interest rate forecast in South Africa for the 20 November 2025 MPC meeting. However, the bank’s chief economist, Miyelani Maluleke, stated in March that “the SARB interest rate easing cycle is nearing its end” after the MPC held rates at 7.50%. This statement was made ahead of the July cut to 7.00%, which suggests that ABSA expected limited further easing. (Source)
In ABSA’s most recent quarterly economic forecast, taken from September 2025, the bank projects that CPI inflation will increase to “just above 4% by year-end”. This will result from spikes in electricity costs and water tariffs. ABSA has changed its full-year 2025 inflation forecast set to 3.7%, down from their earlier estimates. (Source)
ABSA is emphasising global economic turbulence and trade tensions, specifically referring to how US tariffs are influencing matters. This signals that the bank perceives external risks necessitating a cautious approach to more interest rate cuts. This implies that ABSA likely expects a hold on the interest rate in November. (Source)
Capitec’s predictions
Capitec does not publish economic research or forecasts of the prime interest rate. It is different from South Africa’s other major banks. Capitec doesn’t have a chief economist or research department that offers commentary on SARB decisions.
Investec’s predictions
Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop states that the SARB has taken a stop-start approach to the interest rate-cutting cycle, beginning in September 2024. (Source)
“Bishop noted that a 25bp cut in the repo rate before the close of 2025… is almost fully factored in by financial markets, including the SARB’s own forward rate curve.” (Source)
Yet, a large number of economists expect the MPC to be cautious and hold rates until 2026. (Source)
“If the SARB cuts in November, South Africans could see another 50bp of cuts in 2026. If rates are held until 2026, this could bump up to 75bp in cuts by the end of the year.” (Source)
Sanlam and Old Mutual’s predictions
“Inflation expectations are still quite a bit higher, and the upward trend towards 4.2% in December 2025 should keep the SARB from cutting interest rates at this meeting,” said an independent economist, Elize Kruger. (Source)
Arthur Kamp, Chief Economist at Sanlam Investments, agrees. He notes that interest rate forecasts in line with a hold in November are affected by an upward shift in inflation, which is expected to continue into 2026. Even at 3.3%, inflation is seen as higher than the initial target, and according to the central bank, reaching that target will take some time. (Source)
Old Mutual Investment Group Chief Economist Johann Els hasn’t noted a prediction for the November 20 meeting, but his recent thoughts on the matter suggest he expects rates to remain on hold.
Johann Els stated it makes sense to keep and hold rates “until we can lower them again when inflation starts moving lower again towards the [3%] inflation target.” (Source)
Old Mutual’s analysis shows we need to remain patient as we allow previous interest rate cuts to affect the economy before adding further stimulation. With 125 basis points in cuts already since September 2024, Els believes the MPC will need to assess the effects of these moves.
The interest rate forecast for 2025 and into 2026
The consensus is that the interest rate will hold at 7.00% on 20 November 2025. FNB, Nedbank, Sanlam, and most likely ABSA and Old Mutual all predict there will be no change to the interest rate. It is only Investec that has predicted a possible 25 basis point cut; however, their opinions err on the side of caution, too.
Earlier in 2025, a large number of analysts anticipated a 50 basis point cut for the full year. The increase in inflation since June has changed the overall outlook of economists and analysts. Specifically because SARB has stated its preference to anchor inflation at 3%, and not the typical 4.5% midpoint.
The September MPC meeting showed signs of the MPC’s thought process. The 4-2 vote in favour of holding the interest rate (while 2 members were still in favour of a cut). Governor Kganyago’s point about assessing the impact of previous interest rate cuts suggests a leaning among the committee’s members to remain patient. As inflation moves away from the 3% target, the case in favour of further easing has become weaker. (Source)
What does this mean for property investors?
For IGrow investors, the 20 November MPC meeting will likely remain a hold on the current interest rate with no change. This will bring no relief to financial lending costs. The prime lending rate is anticipated to remain at 10.5%. Home loan repayments will likely remain the same.
Looking at the medium-term interest rate forecast in South Africa in 2025, it looks positive. The SARB is committed to anchoring inflation at its target of 3%. This means there will be lower interest rates over an unknown timeframe. This timeframe may be slower than investors and homeowners had hoped.
How does this affect home loan repayments?
For property owners with home loans at variable rates, the hold in interest rate means your budget will likely be stable regarding home loan interest rate costs into early 2026. On the bright side, interest rates are still at a multi-year low.
The core message is: South Africa’s interest rate will decrease over the medium-term, but it will be via a slow process. The MPC meeting on 20 November 2025 will likely show a pause or hold rather than an end to the easing cycle. Further cuts are reliant on inflation moving back towards the 3% target in 2026.
Conclusion
To sum up:
- The Interest rate forecast in South Africa in 2025 predicts a hold at 7.00% for the repo rate.
- The South African interest rate forecast implies the SARB will try hard to reinforce its 3% inflation target.
- The Prime interest rate forecast in South Africa should stay near 10.50% until inflation moderates in 2026.
For investors and homeowners, this means you need to plan for stability rather than interest rate cuts.
Contact an IGrow property investment strategist today for a free financial assessment so we can point you in the right direction with your property investment strategy. We look forward to offering you expert advice as the interest rate decision from the SARB approaches.
